The model PHENOFIT is a process-based species ditribution model designed for forest tree species living in boreal, temperate and Mediterranean climates. Itrelies on the assumption that species adaptation to abiotic conditions is tightly related to its capacity to synchronize its annual life cycle with seasonal climatic variations because this synchronisation affects its survival and relative reproductive success. The model runs on a daily basis with daily meteorological data but outputs are on a yearly basis.

Two versions of PHENOFIT exist: PHENOFIT4 and PHENOFIT5. Note that all publications prior 2021 have used PHENOFIT4. Note that the phenology submodels of PHENOFIT are now a library in CAPSIS (Phelib).

PHENOFIT4 simulates an average individual. It is compose of different sub-models: phenology models for leaves, flowers, fruits, frost resistance model, drought resistance model, reproductive success model, survival model. The product of survival and reproductive success is used as a proxy for fitness, and for the probability of occurrence. This model does not make use the observed distribution of the species to produce its output.

PHENOFIT5 build upon PHENOFIT4 and simulates several trees of different species and age (3 classes). It thus includes a competition model which is driven by water and light availability. PHENOFIT5 also includes a fecundity model (number and biomass of fruits produced), a growth model and a more detailed water budget.

Selected publications:

• A Duputié, A Rutschmann, O Ronce, I Chuine. (2015) Phenological plasticity will not help all species adapt to climate change. Global change biology 21 (8), 3062-3073.
• Saltré F, Duputié A, Gaucherel C, Chuine I (2014) How climate, migration ability and habitat fragmentation affect the projected future distribution of European beech. Global Change Biology, 21 (2), 897-910.
• Saltré F., Saint-Amant R., Gritti E.S., Brewer S., Gaucherel C., Davis B.A.S. & Chuine I. (2013). Climate or migration: what limited European beech postglacial colonization? Global Ecol. Biogeogr., 22(11):1217-1227.
• Morin X., C. Augspurger, et I. Chuine (2007) Process-based modeling of tree species’ distributions. What limits temperate tree species’ range boundaries? Ecology, 88(9) : 2280-2291.
• Chuine I.et E. Beaubien (2001) Phenology is a major determinant of temperate tree distributions. Ecology Letters, 4: 500-510.

Fagus sylvatica realized distribution in 2100 simulated by PHENOFIT following A1Fi climate scenario and GRASS land use change scenario (from Saltré et al. 2014)